- The ability to test very quickly and efficiently. The zenith of this will be self-test kits that require no interaction with medical workers.
- Testing for antibodies to detect past as well as present infection.
- One or more vaccines
April 5, 2020 6:00 PM PST The following short article was written by Affiliated Research Economics. In an environment that is polarized by either complacency towards the Coronavirus or preaching doomsday, anticipating the path of COVID-19 more accurately serves endless health, societal, and economic benefits. Aimlessly stating the virus will be gone in two weeks or in 18 months without analyzing the variables at play is fundamentally flawed and carries far reaching negative consequences. The overriding problem is that those offering forecasts either have self-interests, act emotionally, are inexperienced, or use an excessive “abundance of caution” that on the surface has no cost or consequence. The cost of the latter can be as high as the cost of the complacent. Our analysis starts at the basic premise that a virus cannot be eradicated. Viruses play an important role in nature and are here to stay. Humans have shown an unfortunate ability to push more complex organisms to extinction, but viruses cannot be eradicated. If total elimination was possible, the need for vaccination against measles would not exist. Assuming the Coronavirus originated from an animal indicates that the virus plays a role in that animal’s biology. The role might be a simple defense mechanism to keep other animals (like humans) away from it. Humans protection against viruses is limited the creation of antibodies after a person is infected and vaccines. The “End of Coronavirus” for humans will be defined by our ability to largely protect ourselves against by testing and vaccinating. We will continue with the three assumptions that if every person could be tested for the virus, tested for immunity against the coronavirus, and a vaccine was discovered the entire conversation, predictions and timeline would change instantly. These are what the title of article refers to as the Three White Swans: